Obiter

September/October 2000 So far this millennium has packed a sprightly pace of events into the opening months (I choose to begin it with this year and not the next, as do some of the purists who are out of step with public perception, which is, after all, the only meaningful measure to something that is an artifice of convenience for humanity alone). Perhaps it is primarily because of the irritant of a presidential election year, but I cannot remember so many remarkable changes in such a short time, even allowing for the fall of the Soviet Union a decade ago.

Days ago Israel unilaterally pulled out of Lebanon, precipitating a collapse of the Christian militia there and bringing taunting Hezbollah fighters right to the border fences. The lingering war between Ethiopia and breakaway Eritrea suddenly seems to be near settlement. Farther south the implosion of Sierra Leone has sucked in United Nations troops and concerned internationalists with the implications for spreading anarchy (and yes, anarchists seem to have reappeared here in North America with nihilistic notions). Robert Mugabe in Zimbabwe has incited retribution against White farmers and sent jitters throughout South Africa. In Sri Lanka the Tamil Tiger insurgency has cut off an entire area of the country and now threatens the government. Western peace negotiators fled the Solomon Islands under a hail of gunfire. In Fiji ethnic Fijians still hold their prime minister, an ethnic Indian, hostage . . . But why go on? This is already a proven time of change and upheaval!

How to make sense of it. Someone once observed that while history does not repeat itself, it does rhyme. Clearly the past is a good guide; often a salutary warning in dealing with the present. Human nature being what it is, there are clear patterns that will repeat in similar circumstances.

I just returned from a week in Guatemala, Central America. Over the years I have been there about a dozen times and have seen it change from a rather ominous military dictatorship battling insurgency in a brutal way to a palpably free and more secure society. The benefits of that change are obvious in the way that people now feel free to voice political dissent, in the building boom, the business expansion, the sight of indigenous Indian children enjoying a water park alongside families of the oligarchy.

But some things remain. There is fear of violence. Guards stand out front of any major business and wealthy residence with pistol-grip short shotguns at the ready.

Some years ago, in the midst of the guerrilla war and right-wing death squads, a dictator named General Efra

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